Two +BE on the 15 minute chart indicated some hidden strength in the middle of the 10th. But, that was then. NQ has been our primary focus since the market cycled back to neutral then overbought since the 28 Oct climax low. Yesterday's sharp down spike shook us out of the position, as we shifted focus to QQQQ as well as mounting indicators of short term excess. In fact we're quite pleased to have been hit at this time, as it reveals in clear terms the trade-off between reality and theoretical positon management. Frankly, we'd struggle to find many who, having ridden NQ for successive up days, then seen the extreme breadth & sentiment readings accumulating, finally watching a Q break in QQQQ under 40, would sit tight. But sit tight we should have done, apparently.



Monday 14th Nov:

Notable stocks reporting today - Before the open: WMT (WalMart) - WMT isn't just the world's largest retailer, it is a barometer of US and world retail strength. Walmart is so large that it alone accounts for 10% of the US trade deficit with China. Also keep an eye on the retail ETF, RTH (Retail Handlers) as a broader measure of how WMT is acting in relation to its sector. WMT has rebounded harder and faster from the Katrina lows.

Greenspan speaks on current account to Mexico at 10:10.
When Alan Greenspan the Chairman of the federal reserve speaks, the world listens. As they go this speech won't be hugely important, but worth bearing in mind.

Tuesday 15th Nov:

Notable stocks reporting today - Before the open: HD (Home Depot) - HD is America's largest home improvement company. Similar to WMT HD has shown real strength since the Katrina lows. HD is an interesting stock in itself as well as barometer for US spending patterns.

Pre open we have the October Retail sales data released. This is a vital cog in the US economic machine. October PPI (Producers Price Index) data is also released pre open. This measures the price of goods at the wholesale level. Both sets of data are worth being aware of as they both have the potential to affect the market.

Wednesday 16th Nov:

Notable stocks reporting today - Before the open: DHI (D.R. Horton) - DHI is a one of America's largest house building firms and is therefore a window into the strength of the US housing market. As with the UK, a healthy housing market usually means more money to spend on consumable goods.

Pre open October CPI (consumer price Index) data is released. Core CPI, which is released at the same time is viewed as a key measure for inflation in the US.

Thursday 17th Nov:

Notable stocks reporting today - Before the open: SBUX (Starbucks) - SBUX needs no introductions, such is its global presence. SBUX is one of our core trading stocks and a company that Dane Halling helping bring to the market during his brokerage days. Again SBUX is more than an isolated stock, millions of people world wide spend their disposable income on Seattle coffee. If sales at SBUX are down it can be an indication that people are starting to tighten their belts.

Pre Open we have October Housing starts and Housing permits data release. Both are key measures of the strength of the US house market. October's Industrial production is also released which is a measure of US manufacturing production and Utilities capacity.

Friday 18th Nov:

Some stocks reporting, but none of our core trading stocks.



14/11/2005 17:38 / QQQQ 40.725 / We must confess it's impressive action we're seeing here as QQQ hovers, tremors, keeping everyone watching & waiting. Not a whiff of a substantive pull-back – yet! Somehow the market's got it into its head that it wants up. Trouble is to launch off a pretty overbought platform like we have right now requires serious gas. We don't discount this possibility, but (here we go talking our subjective market view) we are erring to the side of a 'refresher' type pause/pullback. This current bullishness could evaporate if the numbers don't stack up this week. Not saying we're priced here for perfection, but priced for more than not bad.